Basel and Valencia Final Predictions

We’ve finally reached to the finals of the Basel and Valencia ATP Masters 500 tournament. The finalists of Basel are Roger Federer and Juan Martin del Potro, and the other finalists for Valencia is David Ferrer and Alexander Dogolopolov.


Roger Federer won against Thomas Bellucci, Benoit Paire, and Paul-Henri Mathieu to arrive the Basel finals for the 9th time in his career. Roger Federer did not play quite well against Thomas Bellucci, but managed to advance to the second round, winning the match 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-5. When Roger faced Benoit Paire in the second round, he played much better compared to his last match, and he defeated Paire with a score of 6-2, 6-2. Federer’s third round opponent was a player that kept on causing upsets in the tournament. Paul-Henri Mathieu (ranked #101) defeated Nikolay Davydenko, a player who defeated the Swiss number 2 (world ranking #17)in the second round, and he also defeated Grigor Dimitrov with a fierce tie-break battle, 7-6(2), 7-6(4). However, Mathieu’s roll was denied by Roger Federer, who won against him 6-4, 7-5. Roger Federer will be facing Juan Martin del-Potro in the 2012 Basel Finals. Federer faced del-Potro in Basel 5 years ago, and the winner of that match was Roger Federer. An event from 5 years ago can’t be used as a reference when thinking about predictions, but judging by the recent battles against Federer and Del Potro, I think that Federer will be able to take him on. This year, Federer has won all 6 of his matches against Del Potro, with the most recent being the Summer Olympics semi-finals, 3-6 7-6 19-17. Their last match versus each other was recorded as the longest match in the Olympics finals, which lasted 4 hours and 26 minutes, despite the fact that the battle was only a three set match.

I think Federer will have a tough time in the finals, but Federer seems to feel good on how he is playing in this tournament, so Federer should be able to win this.


David Ferrer | Photo – AFP, Getty Images

As I stated in my previous post, David Ferrer definitely benefitted from the early retirement from Jo-Wilfired Tsonga and Janko Tipsarevic in the tournament. David Ferrer has reached the Valencia finals, defeating Albert Ramos, Nicolas Almagro, and Ivan Dodig (who defeated the number 7 seed Marin Cilic). He will face Alexandr Dolgopolov in the Valencia Finals. Alexandr has been on a roll recently, defeating Gilles Muller, Marcel Granollers, and Jurgen Melzer. The question is, will he be able to take on the world number 5, David Ferrer? I think not. Ferrer should be able to win this tournament, though I do expect a 5-5 or tiebreak on one set.

David Ferrer reflects his semi-finals win in Valencia:

Tomorrow, I would like to do my best. We are here in Valencia and it is very special to me.

David Ferrer

What do you guys think of my predictions? Any objections or things to add to my hypothesis? If so, feel free to leave a comment below!